Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 11.783047 13.494966 15.333734 17.451455 19.818800 22.379299 25.353777
2025-10-19 9.279445 11.608515 14.300317 17.624196 21.599805 26.183013 31.845917
2025-10-26 7.772071 10.304056 13.373306 17.336065 22.281755 28.212866 35.822035
2025-11-02 6.756723 9.439891 12.834296 17.393078 23.297887 30.624611 40.331030
2025-11-09 6.013847 8.796400 12.449623 17.525083 24.310000 32.973672 44.762983
2025-11-16 5.338428 8.153550 11.980250 17.466410 25.016138 34.911389 48.706557
2025-11-23 4.744497 7.549393 11.488994 17.304948 25.525950 36.562074 52.290669
2025-11-30 4.324437 7.146242 11.230427 17.422781 26.390227 38.689447 56.565699
2025-12-07 4.061851 6.947272 11.238561 17.902561 27.763385 41.547244 61.930590
2025-12-14 3.651268 6.475706 10.797705 17.678721 28.090128 42.930299 65.266609
2025-12-21 3.171216 5.843333 10.056087 16.939078 27.595649 43.092012 66.839540
2025-12-28 3.010480 5.720289 10.095704 17.393015 28.897907 45.892393 72.304304
2026-01-04 2.828081 5.548537 10.051225 17.721590 30.041373 48.532718 77.683494
2026-01-11 2.576675 5.231749 9.743733 17.604308 30.478840 50.128796 81.569614
2026-01-18 2.341569 4.918956 9.414441 17.420306 30.784767 51.515585 85.164214
2026-01-25 2.164119 4.694678 9.217786 17.439798 31.409617 53.405929 89.581650
2026-02-01 2.023192 4.525425 9.102815 17.585862 32.239625 55.636773 94.589609
2026-02-08 1.864674 4.305317 8.878074 17.522048 32.707711 57.299522 98.750288
2026-02-15 1.708085 4.072663 8.611014 17.361921 32.995980 58.671689 102.481095
2026-02-22 1.601097 3.931553 8.503664 17.479442 33.759681 60.834980 107.538980
2026-03-01 1.545854 3.895050 8.593034 17.960815 35.175587 64.116621 114.508166
2026-03-08 1.414655 3.679196 8.315177 17.736256 35.325027 65.283200 118.035552
2026-03-15 1.241627 3.350072 7.784685 16.994547 34.501859 64.766089 118.739031